The Fierce Urgency of Now

A candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win the Presidency.

Both parties have LOCKED DOWN states that they're not losing i.e. New York for Obama and Texas for McCain.

When these states are factored out:

Obama:
Vermont - 3
Connecticut - 7
Delaware - 3
Illinois - 21
Maine - 4
Maryland - 10
Massachusetts - 12
New Jersey - 15
District of Columbia - 3
Michigan - 17
Minnesota - 10
New York - 31
Rhode Island - 4
Wisconsin - 10
Iowa - 7
California - 55
Hawaii - 4
Oregon - 7
Washington - 11

That adds up to 234 electoral votes.

McCain:
Georgia - 15
Kentucky - 8
South Carolina - 8
West Virginia - 5
Alabama - 9
Mississippi - 6
Oklahoma - 7
Tennessee - 11
Arkansas - 6
Arizona - 10
Kansas - 6
Louisiana - 9
Nebraska - 5
South Dakota - 3
Texas - 34
Wyoming - 3
Montana - 3
Utah - 5
Idaho - 4
North Dakota - 3
Alaska - 3

That adds up to 163 electoral votes

Okay...that's where we stand. Some would argue about Iowa and Minnesota on Barack's side but Iowa has gone blue in four of the last five elections and Minnesota hasn't gone red since 1972. Couple that with Obama's large and growing leads in both states and I'd call them solid.

So that's where it sits...234 to 163

Leaving 11 swing states:

Ohio - 20
Virginia - 13
Indiana - 11
Florida - 27
North Carolina - 15
Missouri - 11
New Hampshire - 4
Pennsylvania - 21
Colorado - 9
New Mexico - 5
Nevada - 5

A total of 141 electoral votes up for grabs.

Obama only needs 36 of those 141 electoral votes (25%) to be elected President. McCain has to grab 75% of the contested swing states despite being down in the polls in almost all of those states.

And I'm thinking we should know relatively early into the evening what the outcome is likely to be. Eight of these swing states close their polls at or before 8pm:

7:00pm
Virginia - 13
Indiana - 11

7:30pm
Ohio - 20
North Carolina - 15

8:00pm
Florida - 27
Pennsylvania - 21
Missouri - 11
New Hampshire - 4

9:00pm
Colorado - 9

10:00pm
Nevada - 5

Now, I'm not saying this to be cocky or to say that we've got it made and we can sit back. Quite the contrary, the McCain campaign has known this for some time. Which is why we're seeing this desperate, hyperaggressive push to impugn Barack's character. Because they know they can't win by discussing the issues.

We can laugh at the foibles of Sarah Palin and her 'Pretty Woman' shopping sprees and McCain and those corny air quotes and contorted facial expressions but the reality is that they will be working HARD to try and steal as many states...and votes (wink)...as they can and we Obama supporters please need to keep emailing our friends and wearing our gear and if you can volunteer at all this weekend, it will really make the difference. You can go to barackobama.com to find phone banks and other organizing efforts right in your neighborhood. Let's fight the slanderous robocalls with live voices speaking the truth.

This is it, people...the home stretch. We stand on the precipice of the most historic election in our lifetime and perhaps in American history. The stakes have never been higher.

The choice to elect a lapdog of the current administration who has professed a DESIRE for war, continued tax cuts for the super-rich and a blatant disregard and mocking of issues like education, women's health and the environment. An erratic self-styled deregulator who had one message about the strength of the economy when he boarded a plane and had a completely different message when that plane landed.

And the choice to elect an intelligent, principled leader who knows, firsthand, the struggles of the middle class and has tangible plans to address them. A man who sees other people in other lands not as enemies but as allies first and will restore America's good standing in the world and a candidate for President who has earned the respect, the endorsement and the backing of countless elder statesman, military experts and financial authorities. A rare public servant who wins the respect not only of the Warren Buffetts and the Colin Powells but the bus drivers and the teachers and homemakers of this great land.

In less than a week, we can make history but we have to work at it. We can do this. We will do this. But we all need to lend a hand. We're almost at the finish line, guys. Change is almost upon us.

Let's get 'em...